Tuesday, June 20, 2006

World Series of Poker 2006 betting

We've recently updated our World Series of Poker betting and we've added a couple more categories. We're now betting on the top former champion and also the top female finisher in the WSOP main event.

BetUSA.com top former champion betting

Phil Hellmuth 8-1
Chris Ferguson 10-1
Erik Seidel 10-1
Dan Harrington 10-1
Carlos Mortenson 10-1
Johnny Chan 10-1
Scotty Nguyen 10-1
Huckleberry Seed 14-1
Greg Raymer 14-1
Doyle Brunson 14-1
Joe Hachem 16-1
Russ Hamilton 25-1
Tom McEvoy 25-1
Amarillo Slim Preston 25-1
Jim Bechtel 25-1
Berry Johnstone 25-1
Chris Moneymaker 33-1
Noel Furlong 33-1
Bobby Baldwin 33-1
Robert Varkonyi 33-1
Brad Daugherty 33-1
Hamid Dastmalchi 40-1
Hal Fowler 40-1
Mansour Matloubi 40-1

BetUSA.com Top women finisher at the World Series of Poker main event

Jennifer Harman 14-1
Annie Duke 20-1
Kathy Liebert 20-1
Clonie Gowen 33-1
Melissa Hayden 33-1
Kristy Gazes 33-1
Kattrina Jett 33-1
Jennifer Tilley 33-1
Joanne (JJ) Lui 33-1
Isabelle (No Mercy) Mercier 33-1
Evelyn Ng 33-1
Cecilia Reyes 33-1
Cindy Violette 33-1
Lonnie Heimowitz 33-1
Jennie Kang 33-1
Anahit Galajian 33-1
Nani Dollison 33-1
Liz Liu 33-1
Patty Gallagher 33-1
Jerri Thomas 33-1
Ester Rossi 40-1
Connie Kim 40-1
Linda Johnson 40-1
Susie Isaacs 40-1
Kathy Kolberg 40-1
Barbara Enright 40-1
Olga Varkonyi 40-1
Erica Schoenberg 40-1
Vanessa Rousso 40-1
Victoria Coren 40-1
Sue (Hussy) Jones 40-1
Xuyen (Bad Girl) Pham 40-1
Wendeen Elios 40-1
Mimi Tran 40-1
Maria Stern 40-1
Maureen Feduniak 40-1
Marsha Waggoner 40-1
Barbara Laux 40-1
Phyllis Myers 40-1
Pok H Kim 40-1
Renlee Wexler 40-1
Cecilia Nordenstam 40-1
Anh Le 40-1
Marie Gabert 40-1
Jane Studley 40-1
Sarah Casey 40-1
Tiffany Williamson 50-1
Sarah Bilney 50-1
Helen Chamberlain 50-1
Shannon Elizabeth 50-1

A long break

There's nothing like a long break from blogging...to annoy people who come to your page and find you haven't updated since December.

It has been a busy time at BetUSA.com. January is mad with playoffs and then the Super Bowl in early Feb, followed by a short break for March Madness. Only now, when the Stanley Cup and NBA Championships come to an end do we have any sort of break. Of course there is always baseball betting but it really doesn't attract the same level of action as football or hoops, so it's really a question of grinding our way through the summer and getting ready for the NFL.

Here's the 2007 Super Bowl betting:

Indianapolis Colts 6-1
New England Patriots 8-1
Seattle Seahawks 10-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 12-1
Dallas Cowboys 12-1
Denver Broncos 12-1
Carolina Panthers 13-1
Washington Redskins 15-1
Cincinnati Bengals 15-1
San Diego Chargers 16-1
New York Giants 16-1
Chicago Bears 16-1
Philadelphia Eagles 18-1
Kansas City Chiefs 20-1
Miami Dolphins 22-1
Baltimore Ravens 25-1
Atlanta Falcons 30-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1
Minnesota Vikings 30-1
Arizona Cardinals 45-1
Detroit Lions 45-1
New Orleans Saints 50-1
St Louis Rams 60-1
Oakland Raiders 100-1
Tennessee Titans 100-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Green Bay Packers 100-1
New York Jets 100-1
Buffalo Bills 100-1
Cleveland Browns 100-1
San Francisco 49ers 150-1

At the odds, I think I would bet Dallas. But it's a long way off and I find I tend not to bet until week 2 or 3 of the season, so I can get a real handle on who is playing well.

Monday, December 05, 2005

Five Diamonds betting odds

We've just posted our betting odds on the Five Diamonds at the Bellagio. Unsurprisingly, Phil Ivey is the favorite after his masterful performance in Monte Carlo last month.

Here's the list of more than 350 betting options:

Phil Ivey 30-1
Daniel Negreanu 50-1
Howard The Professor 50-1
Layne Flack 50-1
Phil Hellmuth 70-1
Gus Hansen 70-1
Paul Phillips 100-1
Men The Master Nguyen 100-1
John World Hennigan 100-1
Johnny Chan 100-1
John Juanda 100-1
Huckleberry Seed 100-1
Erik Seidel 100-1
Dave Devilfish Ulliott 100-1
Chris Jesus Ferguson 100-1
Carlos Mortenson 100-1
Barry Greenstein 100-1
Mike The Mouth Matusow 150-1
Mel Judah 150-1
Kathy Liebert 150-1
Minneapolis Jim Meehan 150-1
Jean-Robert Bellande 150-1
Josh Arieh 150-1
Julian Gardner 150-1
Jennifer Harman 150-1
Humberto Brenes 150-1
Minh Ly 150-1
Michael Mizrachi 150-1
Prahlad Friedman 150-1
Young Phan 150-1
Toto Leonides 150-1
Ted Forest 150-1
Tony Ma 150-1
Tony Cosineau 150-1
Surindar Sunar 150-1
Scott Fischman 150-1
Phil Gordon 150-1
Paul Darden 150-1
Hassan Habib 150-1
Gavin Griffin 150-1
Antonio Esfandiari 150-1
Annie Duke 150-1
Amir Vahedi 150-1
Alex Brenes 150-1
Allen Cunningham 150-1
Alan Goehring 150-1
Dan Harrington 150-1
TJ Cloutier 150-1
Scotty Nguyen 150-1
Chris Bigler 150-1
Chip Jett 150-1
Chris Grigorian 150-1
Greg Fossilman Raymer 150-1
Gabe Thaler 150-1
Freddy Deeb 150-1
Erick Lindgren 150-1
David The Dragon Pham 150-1
Doyle Texas Dolly Brunson 150-1
David Singer 150-1
Dave El Blondie Colclough 150-1
David Chui 150-1
Mickey Appleman 200-1
Mel Weiner 200-1
Mark Seif 200-1
Nikolaos Frangos 200-1
oneil Longson 200-1
Padraig Parkinson 200-1
Peter Costa 200-1
Martin De Knijff 200-1
Mike Carson 200-1
Lee Nelson 200-1
Lee Watkinson 200-1
Lee Salem 200-1
Kenna James 200-1
Keith Lehr Jet 200-1
James Van Allstyne 200-1
John Kabbaj 200-1
John Phan 200-1
Phillip Marmostein 200-1
Phil Unabomber Laak 200-1
Paul Wolfe 200-1
Willie Tann 200-1
Temperance Hutter 200-1
Thomas Thunder Keller 200-1
Captain Tom Franklin 200-1
Tuan Le 200-1
Tony Guoga Tony G 200-1
Tony D 200-1
Tony The Lizard Bloom 200-1
Thor Hansen 200-1
Stan Goldstein 200-1
Scott Gray 200-1
Richard Tatlovitch 200-1
Rob Hollink 200-1
Robert Williamson 200-1
Raja Kattamuri 200-1
Pascal Perrault 200-1
Yosh Nakano 200-1
Andrew Black 200-1
Dennis Waterman 200-1
Dan Heimiller 200-1
David Williams 200-1
Action Dan Alspach 200-1
Danny Nguyen 200-1
Daniel Larsson 200-1
Dustin Neverwin Woolf 200-1
Chau Giang 200-1
Syracuse Chrs Tsiprailidis 200-1
Cindy Violette 200-1
Brent Carter 200-1
Blair Rodman 200-1
Billy Duarte 200-1
Bill Gazes 200-1
An Tran 200-1
Andy Bloch 200-1
David Plastik 200-1
David Levi 200-1
Diego Cordovez 200-1
John Esposito 200-1
John Bonnetti 200-1
Johan Storakers 200-1
Joe The Elegance Beevers 200-1
Jesse Jones 200-1
Jeff Shulman 200-1
Joseph Hachem 200-1
Miami John Cernutto 200-1
Jason Lester 200-1
Hoyt Corkins 200-1
David Benyamine 200-1
David Oppenheim 200-1
Erik Sagstrom 200-1
Farzad Bonyadi 200-1
Frankie ODell 200-1
Gavin Smith 200-1
Harry Demetriou 200-1
Mike Wattel 250-1
Max Pescatori 250-1
Mike Laing 250-1
Mark Gregorich 250-1
Mickey Mouse Mills 250-1
Leo Boxall 250-1
Lee Markholt 250-1
Lawrence Gosney 250-1
Meng La 250-1
Mikael Thuritz 250-1
Minh Nguyen 250-1
Paul Leckey 250-1
Peter Gunnarson 250-1
Paul Kroh 250-1
Paul McKinney 250-1
Per Werner Svensson 250-1
Matty Lefkowitz 250-1
Melissa Hayden 250-1
Michael Gracz 250-1
Louis Asmo 250-1
Kevin Cantwell 250-1
Kevin Song 250-1
Jan Svajik 250-1
Jan Boubli 250-1
Jason Viriyayuthakorn 250-1
John Pires 250-1
Jani Sointula 250-1
John Myung 250-1
John DAgostino 250-1
John Tex Barch 250-1
Jani Salonen 250-1
Jay Heimowitz 250-1
Kirrill Gerasimov 250-1
Kristy Gazes 250-1
Ken Lennard 250-1
Kattrina Jett 250-1
Karl Limbert 250-1
Juha Hellpi 250-1
Joanne JJ Lui 250-1
Jim Bechtel 250-1
Jimmy Tran 250-1
Paul Alterman 250-1
Warren Karp 250-1
Tim Phan 250-1
Tomer Benvenisti 250-1
Tom Jacobs 250-1
Torstein Iverson 250-1
Tommy Hang 250-1
Sherkhan Fahood 250-1
Sam Farha 250-1
Stan Schrier 250-1
Tony Popejoy 250-1
Tom McEvoy 250-1
Vince Burgio 250-1
Vinnie Vinh 250-1
VS Senthil 250-1
Todd Brunson 250-1
Terrence Chan 250-1
Tino Lechich 250-1
Tommy Venus 250-1
Ty Bain 250-1
Steve Lucky Lui 250-1
Sam Grizzle 250-1
Steve Zolotow 250-1
Ross Boatman 250-1
Randy Holland 250-1
Ralph Perry 250-1
Neil Bad Beat Channing 250-1
Noah Boeken 250-1
Noli Francisco 250-1
Nick Gibson 250-1
Nani Dollison 250-1
Roy The Boy Brindley 250-1
Russell Rosenbloom 250-1
Sigi Stockinger 250-1
Ron Stanley 250-1
Robert Mizrachi 250-1
Richard Brodie 250-1
Robert Bo Toft 250-1
Randy The Dreamcrusher Jensen 250-1
Rumit Somaiya 250-1
Russ Hamilton 250-1
Peter Roche 250-1
David Grey 250-1
Carlo Citrone 250-1
Casey Kastle 250-1
Carl McElvey 250-1
Chad Layne 250-1
Barny Boatman 250-1
Brandon Schaefer 250-1
Brian Nadell 250-1
Bengt Sonnert 250-1
Chris Hinchcliffe 250-1
Chris Karagulleyan 250-1
Clonie Gowen 250-1
Can Kim Hua 250-1
Cuong Huynh 250-1
Conor Tate 250-1
Cliff Josephy 250-1
Chris Bjorin 250-1
Christer Johanson 250-1
Cecilia Reyes 250-1
Berry Johnston 250-1
Brett Jungblutt 250-1
Bob Stupak 250-1
Andre Boyer 250-1
Alexander Stevic 250-1
Avner Levy 250-1
Alan Smurfit 250-1
Andy Miller 250-1
Aiden Bennett 250-1
Ali Sarkeshik 250-1
Adam Schoenfeld 250-1
Aaron Kanter 250-1
Ayhan Alsancak 250-1
Brian Haverson 250-1
Bruno Fitoussi 250-1
Bobby Hoff 250-1
Billy Baxter 250-1
Ben Roberts 250-1
Barry Shulman 250-1
Anthony Reategui 250-1
Abe Mosseri 250-1
Airy Phanhyaseng 250-1
Dewey Tomko 250-1
James Grimes 250-1
Burnley John Falconer 250-1
John Duthie 250-1
Jennifer Tilley 250-1
John Hoang 250-1
Ian McDonald 250-1
Ian Woodley 250-1
Ivan Donaghy 250-1
Isabelle No Mercy Mercier 250-1
Jay Martins 250-1
Jess Yawitz 250-1
John Murphy 250-1
Julian Thew 250-1
Jeff Lisandro 250-1
John Spadevecchia 250-1
Jim Lester 250-1
Joe Awada 250-1
John Stolzman 250-1
JC Tran 250-1
Iwan Jones 250-1
Ivo Donev 250-1
Hung La 250-1
Evelyn Ng 250-1
Eric Brenes 250-1
Eli Elezra 250-1
Ed Moncada 250-1
Davood Mehrmand 250-1
David Chip Reese 250-1
David Minto 250-1
Dutch Boyd 250-1
Eli Balas 250-1
Frank Henderson 250-1
Haralabos Voulgaris 250-1
Hans Tuna Lund 250-1
Hilbert Shirey 250-1
Harley Hall 250-1
Greg Hopkins 250-1
Gareth Jones 250-1
Galen Kester 250-1
Glen Banks 250-1
Donnacha ODea 250-1

NFL Week 13 review

Week 13 was unlucky for the sportsbooks. Bettors are having a dream NFL season and this week was even better than usual for them. That’s saying something because the favorites have been winning at an amazing clip all season.

As usual, the Colts were BetUSA.com’s worst result and they never really looked as though a point spread of 15 would bother them. Bettors continue to bet them at very short prices for the Super Bowl as they simply think they look better class than anyone else and it is hard to disagree with that assessment at the moment.

All the favorites covered in the later games which is the disaster scenario for us and with 12 of the 15 chalks coming in, it was the worst weekend we have had in over a year. 14 of the 15 games were won by the money line favorites too, The weather related under bets on the totals also did well for the bettors, so all in all it was a week for us to forget.

NFL week 13 preview

Can it get any better for NFL favorite bettors?

Week 12 saw 12 of the 16 favorites cover leading to some mammoth paydays for bettors who like to parlay the chalks. In a season where the favorites have been winning at an extraordinary clip – and costing sportsbooks a lot of money – we’re all hoping that week 13 will not be an unlucky week for BetUSA.com.

This time of year is one where bettors and sportsbooks need to be very careful. Four teams have nothing to play for (Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers) while seven more are more than 7,500-1 for Super Bowl glory, meaning that realistically they should be thinking about winning in February 2007, rather than in Detroit in just over two months’ time.

Should you simply oppose those teams with nothing to play for? History tell us that is the way bettors think but all too often, the teams with nothing to gain come out and surprise those teams who desperately need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

So where’s the action so far this week at BetUSA.com?

Unsurprisingly, the Colts are again going to the team that makes or breaks our week. All season both square and sharp bettors have sided with the Colts and the linesmakers have really struggled to find the right number for them. We opened up -15 and were swiftly hit to -15.5 and it won’t be long before we go to -16 because 93% of the action is against the Titans.

The Seahawks are also incredibly popular for the Monday Night Football contest against the Eagles. Opening at -3.5, the line swiftly moved to -4 and 94% of our pointspread bettors are with Seattle. Even three months ago it would have been hard to imagine that last year’s Super Bowl runners up would be dogs at home against the Seahawks but such are the swings in football, we can’t give the Eagles away at the moment.

Understandably, everyone wants to oppose the 49ers and so Arizona -3 has been a very attractive bet to the public, with 89% of the cash down on the Cardinals, despite their 3-8 record. Other popular teams this week include the Jags -3 at the Browns (86% of bets so far) and Miami -3 when they host the Bills (83% of action). When people starting supporting Miami you have to wonder what the world is coming to as they have been one of the least popular teams for the last two seasons. I guess Buffalo’s last two losses have been so nasty that bettors have simply given up on them.

Sunday Night Football is always a big decision for BetUSA.com and we will be hoping San Diego fail to show any sort of Super Bowl credentials against the Raiders. The sharps have already been in for SD -10.5 and the line is now 11.5, which is not a big move but I can see it going higher if the favorites do well in the early games.

With bettors having plenty of money in their pockets from a superb November, the last five weeks of the NFL season looks like being an interesting time for all involved!

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

NFL week 12 roundup

I'm not in a good mood right now, so this will be a short post.

14 favorites won, one lost and one pushed.

That adds up to a very bad week for sportsbooks. It was definitely bad for BetUSA.com.

In fact, I don't think we've had as bad a NFL season in about 6 years. We had a horrible November last year but the rest of the season was pretty good. But this year it has been pretty much bad every week.

More later when I've cheered up a bit...

NFL week 12 preview

Perhaps it is the effect of the holiday season. Or perhaps I have been watching different games from BetUSA.com’s customers. Otherwise I can’t think of an explanation for some of the betting patterns this week.

Most popular team so far this week has been Carolina, who a staggering 94% of our bettors have supported -4 for the Panthers’ trip to the Bills. Yes, that’s the same Panthers team that managed just three points against the Bears. I guess the Bills did get comprehensively stuffed by the Chargers but we’ll be hoping they aren’t turkeys this weekend because it looks like this game will be a big decision for us.

Unsurprisingly the money has been flowing in for the Colts for their Monday Night Football matchup with the Steelers. This was possibly the hardest line to set as the Colts are such an explosive team and bettors want to get with them at almost any price. That’s hardly surprising either because – rarely for such a public team – they have an excellent record against the spread. Personally I think the Colts are good value at -8 and I expect the line to move up a little by Monday but there are some of my colleagues who think this is the sort of contest where their unbeaten record is likely to come to an end.

Other popular teams this week include the Chargers – the choice of 92% of bettors at -3 on their trip to Washington – and Oakland, who host the 3-7 Dolphins and are wanted by 89% of BetUSA.com’s early bettors at -7. St Louis are popular too – or rather people are looking to oppose the Texans and will take any team against them these days. When a team is 1-9 then the public will always look to get with their opponents and I can see the Rams being more like -5 than the current -3.5 at kick off.

Bettors so far seem to like the road teams, with good money for both Atlanta and Denver on Thanksgiving Day and 10 of the 16 games where the road team is preferred. This is an unusual situation and one of the theories of NFL betting is that you should be very wary of taking a road favorite. That said, the chalks have been doing so well this season that it is hardly surprising that bettors have decided to ignore the conventional wisdom and are instead sticking to the tactics that have made them rich all season. From BetUSA.com’s point of view it has certainly not been a vintage season and we’ll be hope for a few surprises this weekend!

Friday, November 18, 2005

NFL week 11 preview

Who’d have thunk it? Last season’s Super Bowl runners up play the New York Giants this week and get a 7.5 point start.

Obviously the reasons are there for all to see. No T.O, McNabb injured and an Eagles team that is 4-5 and has put together three losses on the spin, including last week’s Monday Night heartbreaker against Dallas. Stand-in QB Mike McMahon has a lot on his plate against a Giants team that really feel they can win the NFC East and go on to a Super Bowl appearance, It is not an impossible dream either – their division now looks one of the stronger ones in the NFC while the whole conference is remarkably sub-standard by comparison with the AFC, so much so that the NFC are now 9.5 dogs for the Super Bowl.

The bettors want to be with the Giants too. At -7.5 the action has been 81% on the 6-3 Giants and 71% on them on the money line. We have also seen plenty of money for them to win the division too, with the giants listed as 11-5 second favorites, behind the 10-11 Cowboys.

However the Giants are by no means the most popular team with bettors. Jacksonville, who are asked to cover 4.5 points at the Titans, are the choice of 94% of point spread bettors, while Seattle, who have to cover 12.5 points on their trip to the 49ers, are wanted by 88% of BetUSA.com clients.

The Colts has been the big public team this year and there’s no change this week with floods of money for them -5.5 at the Bengals, one of four team in the NFL tied for the second best record with a 7-2 season to date. 84% of the cash so far has been on the Colts.

With bye weeks now out of the way and 16 games on the board this weekend, bettors have plenty of choice about how to get their money down.

Pittsburgh are popular to overcome a 3.5 point start at Baltimore and I think that the bettors have got this right. The Ravens have been dreadful this season and seem to be going backwards and I can see why only 11% of the money has been for them.

Any team that performances well on Monday Night Football is likely to be popular with bettors the following week and Dallas are certainly that this week. Even with a -8 point spread to cover against Detroit (who at 4-5 are not exactly the worst team out there), 85% of bettors are on the Cowboys. Personally I think the line has gone too high and I would be happy to sit on the 7 – but bettors definitely only want to go one way and we do have to shade our lines with the money. If I were having one bet this week, at the moment I would take the Lions with the 8 point start.

The Vikings vs Packers Monday Night game should be exciting but we will definitely be cheering the Vikings in this game. It is very early days but so far almost all the money – 90% - has been for Green Bay and they have moved from -4 to -5. I thought this game was very close and our initial line was 3 before we shaded it to take into account the Packers’ status as a public team and the cold snap in Wisconsin, which is usually worth a point to the home team.

Tipping casino dealers

There's an interesting article in today's Chicago Sun Times about why you should tip dealers in a casino.

John G Brokopp, their gaming columnist, argues that in the US it is culturally accepted that you should tip people for their good service and that, if you are winning, you should toke the dealer.

I don't play blackjack any more, unless I've had a substantial amount of Jack Daniels and lost my ability to think rationally, but when I did play I used to be a generous tipper. I remember once turning $200 at Binions (downtown Las Vegas) into $7,000 in 13 hours of extremely well fuelled play (about 10 years ago when Binions was a place you went to gamble and Jack Binion was still in charge). I was betting $50 a hand for dealers and tipping the drinks waitresses $25 a time. I found when I came to pay my room bill for the 10 days I had been there I was comped the whole stay. So, it shows that it can pay to tip.

Anyway, back to the article. Brokopp says: "Dealers rely heavily on tips to beef up their weekly take-home pay. Some people resent this, arguing that casino operators have a lot of nerve placing that financial burden upon the backs of players in light of the huge profits their businesses generate each month." I admit to having some symapthy with this view and I know a lot of poker players who simply refuse to tip. At the World Series of Poker this year one of the dealers told me they got better hourly tip rates on the $2-$4 no limit tables than they did on the $200-$400 game. The reason is that at the higher level the players are in business and any edge they give away cuts into their bottom line.

But back to the reason for this post. I'm amazed that no online casino software developer hasn't added in the option to tip the dealer on their site. I have a sneaking suspicion that if they did, a surprising number of people would toke their online dealer. Perhaps all the tokes could go into some sort of jackpot pool to reward someone whose 20 was cracked be a dealer turning his 6 into 21 three times in a row.

I had a meeting with a software developer earlier this week who is working on an online blackjack game where you can choose to be the dealer or the player. If you choose to be the dealer, you pay a percentage of your winnings to the casino for the privelege. I guess I should have suggested to him that this was a perfect situation where players really might want to tip the dealer. The software was pretty impressive and we'll be looking to add it to BetUSA.com once it has been properly tested, debugged and shown to be hacker proof.

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Celebrity endorsements

There was an interesting article in the New York Times yesterday about celebrities endorsing sportsbooks.

It mainly focussed on Jesse Ventura but also mentioned Tom Arnold, Brooke Burke and Jim Kelly.

Ventura apparently told the reporter (Matt Richtel) that he was not aware that federal law prohibits Internet gambling operations; his management company, he said, told him that the deal would not be a problem.

And that is the nub of the problem. Does US law prohibit online sports gambling? No-one really knows. The US have consistently lost cases at the World Trade Organisation for their restrictions of trade placed on Antiguan licensed sportsbooks (of which we, BetUSA.com, are one). And interestingly the Justice Department refused to comment to the New York Times about whether online sports gambling is illegal, which suggests they accept that it is an area of extreme uncertainty.

Of course some people disagree and think these celebrities are leaving themselves open to prosecution. "There's a good chance they are criminally liable for the crime itself," said I. Nelson Rose, a professor at Whittier Law School in California and the author of "The Law of Internet Gaming." For celebrities who draw attention from law enforcement officials, he said, "the downside danger is enormous."

Most sportsbook operators I know would like a legal ruling on their activities and would like to see online betting made legal and taxed. Although the general public like to think that all of us sitting in Costa Rica, Antigua, Curacao or wherever are part of organised crime and using the profits of gambling to fund illegal drug trade, the truth is nothing like that. Almost every serious operator here is audited by a major accountancy firm and is looking for a stock market float at the moment. No one would object to paying tax on their operations to the US government, as long as it online gambling was treated sensibly, like any other trade.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

NFL week 10 review

Although the chalk (favorites) had another good week with only five of the 14 dogs winning we still managed to win small. This was mainly down to the Colts’ failure to cover against Houston. With three minutes to play it looked like we were in trouble but the Colts decided to show some mercy to the Texans and that was perfect for BetUSA.com too. Indy are just a huge public team this season and the money is down on them every week, whatever the point spread.

Carolina’s 20 fourth quarter points was a particularly bad result for us, as was New England’s return to form. Bettors don’t seem to have abandoned the Pats yet. Seattle are also a big public team this year and they were a popular choice -6 against St Louis. As seems to happen too regularly, the Sunday Night game saw the favorite cover and the total go over. That’s always a bad combination for us and we did give most of our profits back on that game. The Monday Night game was bad too as even though Dallas was the +3 'dog, as bettors prefered them to the Eagles. It was a very exciting game and the sort of contest that reminds you why you watch a lot of very bad NFL games in the hope of seeing something like this.

We were happy to see both Green Bay and Minnesota win straight up, especially as the Vikings’ victory and Washington’s loss really opens up the NFC East. At the odds, you have to like the Cowboys to win it.

On the outright betting we shortened the Colts and Seahawks again but it really is hard to see past the Colts who now have the best regular season record since the 2003 Chiefs. The Eagles are now 60-1 shots to win the Super Bowl but no-one seems to want to bet them, even at those big odds.

Friday, November 11, 2005

NFL week 10 preview

William G Nevin, head of sports at BetUSA.com, previews week 10 of the NFL

How do you set the line when the best team in the NFL meets the worst team in the NFL? At what point does the public simply say ‘the number is too high’.

That’s the problem the linesmakers at BetUSA.com faced this week. The Colts are undoubtedly the best side in the country at the moment; unbeaten in 8 games and coming off a thorough destruction of last year’s Super Bowl champions, the Patriots. They also have the added incentive of becoming the first 9-0 team since the Chiefs in 2003. Their opponents are the Texans, with a 1-7 record and few signs that they can play competitively for a whole game. The best you can say about them is that, on their best day, they defend the rush reasonably well.

Around the office last week there was a long debate about whether three touchdowns was a possible number. When the Texans played acceptably well against the Jaguars last week, it was generally agreed that three TDs was too much. So you then start to ask whether it is two TDs and a field goal (17) or two TDs and two field goals (2) that the Colts need to cover. In the end, after some lengthy discussions, we opened up at 17.5 on the basis that the likely flow of money would be all to the Colts. When a team is doing that well, the public will always want to bet one way and so we shaded it slightly higher than we would otherwise. Of course of the first 50 bets we booked on the game, 48 were on the Colts and we realized the line was too low and it is now up to 18.5. I personally can see it going as high as 20 – which really is high – as the average bettor is going to say that if the Colts can beat the Pats by 19 then they can annihilate the Texans. So far 87% of the bets we have taken at 18.5 have been for the Colts.

That game will be one of the bigger ones of the week but Monday Night Football is likely to draw a lot of action too with the Cowboys visiting the Eagles. To me this is the classic action game, with last year’s Super Bowl losers who are in definite decline meeting a Cowboys side that have suddenly become serious divisional contenders. The Eagles have dominated the NFC East for so long but with the Terrell Owens saga and their league-worst rushing attack, this is going to be a really interesting matchup. The Cowboys are on offer +3 and I personally think that’s a great bet. Then again I am biased as I have bet them at 80-1 for the Super Bowl.

Bettors had a fantastic week last week and made a lot of money, so it looks likely we will be seeing record amounts wagered at BetUSA.com this Sunday. So far this week the best bet teams are, in order:

Carolina (90%) -9 vs Jets
Washington (89%) – 1 at Tampa Bay
New England (85%) – 3 at Miami
Kansas City (80%) +2.5 at Buffalo

Of these, the one I most understand is the money for the Redskins. The Bucs looked truly awful last week and it is no surprise the public want to get against them. I am surprised there is not more money opposing the Ravens too they were shocking last week but in fact the early money has seen them bet from -7.5 to -6, which is action we are more than happy to book.